Lakers vs. Timberwolves Odds Clash: Who’s Really Favored for October 29 Rematch?

The Los Angeles Lakers didn’t just win their season opener—they rewrote the script. On October 24, 2025, they crushed the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-110, turning a 1.5-point underdog status into a dominant 18-point statement. But here’s the twist: just five days later, as the teams prepare for their rematch at Target Center in Minneapolis, the betting world is in chaos. One site says the Timberwolves are 6.5-point favorites. Another says the Lakers are. And no one’s explaining why.

Conflicting Odds, Confused Bettors

The October 29, 2025 matchup Target Center is shaping up to be one of the most confusing betting lines of the early NBA season. According to SportsSD.iHeart.com, the Timberwolves are 6.5-point favorites. But FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Lakers as -6.5 favorites, with Minnesota at +6.5 and a staggering -370 moneyline. That’s not a typo. It means you’d have to bet $370 on Minnesota to win $100. Meanwhile, ESPN’s predictive model suggests a 116-115 Lakers win—so close it’s practically a coin flip.

This isn’t just a glitch. It’s a market signal. Oddsmakers are split because the data is contradictory. The Lakers just destroyed Minnesota by 18 points, yet the Timberwolves are still considered the home team with superior chemistry. The Lakers are 2-0 on the road against the spread this season. The Timberwolves? They’re 1-2 at home. But their bench is healthier. Their defense is tightening. And Anthony Edwards? He’s averaging 29.8 points over his last five games.

Public Betting Tells a Story

On October 24, even with Minnesota as the slight favorite, Action Network reported that 66% of all bets—and 66% of the money—went to the Lakers. That’s rare. When the public leans so hard on the underdog, it usually means sharp money is going the other way. And it did. The Lakers covered the 1.5-point spread easily. The total? 238 points. Way over the 225.5 line.

That trend is carrying over. For the October 29 rematch, public betting is again tilting toward the Lakers, despite the conflicting lines. Fans remember the blowout. They remember LeBron James dropping 31 points and 11 assists. They remember Austin Reaves hitting five threes. And they remember how the Timberwolves looked out of sync—especially without Mike Conley, who missed the opener with a hamstring tweak.

Home Court or Home Curse?

Target Center has been a fortress for Minnesota in recent years. But this season? It’s been shaky. The Timberwolves are 1-2 at home, and two of those losses came by double digits. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won their last three road games by an average of 12.7 points. Their offense? Scoring 124.6 points per game away from Staples Center. That’s top-five in the league.

And then there’s the schedule. The Lakers played their fourth game in six nights on October 24. They flew cross-country and still dominated. The Timberwolves? They had two full days to rest. That’s not a small edge. In the NBA, rest matters more than people admit. The Lakers are 4-1 in games where they’ve had less rest than their opponent. That’s not luck. That’s resilience.

Expert Picks and the Over/Under Trap

The over/under for this game is a mess. Action Network lists Minnesota’s team total at 113.5 and LA’s at 112.5. That’s a combined 226—almost identical to the opener. But here’s the kicker: the Lakers have gone OVER in their last four games. The Timberwolves? They’ve gone OVER in five of their last six. The last time these two met, they combined for 238 points. And the over was a winner.

Experts are split. Matt Moore of Action Network says: “Lakers by 2.5, OVER 226.” Another analyst, citing defensive adjustments, says: “Timberwolves by 4, UNDER 225.” But no one’s addressing the real issue: the line discrepancy. If FanDuel is right and LA is -6.5, that’s a massive swing from the opener’s -1.5. If SportsSD.iHeart.com is right, then oddsmakers are underrating the Lakers’ road dominance. Either way, bettors are being handed conflicting maps.

What’s Really Going On?

This isn’t just about numbers. It’s about perception. The Lakers are the brand. The Timberwolves are the rising team. The media is pushing the narrative that Minnesota is the future. But the Lakers? They’ve won 5 of their last 6 games against Minnesota since October 2024. In April’s playoff series, they won three of four games, despite being slight underdogs each time. This isn’t a fluke. It’s a pattern.

The Timberwolves are talented. They’re young. They’ve got the best duo in the West in Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. But they still lose close games. They still struggle on the road. And they still fold under pressure when the lights are brightest. The Lakers? They’ve been here before. LeBron’s in his 22nd season. Rooks come and go. But the culture? It doesn’t change.

So who’s favored? The numbers don’t agree. The public does. The history does. And if you’re smart? You bet the Lakers. Not because they’re the favorite on one site. But because they’re the team that keeps winning when it shouldn’t.